Why is this year the "Double La Nina Year"? Soybeans, corn and wheat will be affected by these!

According to the latest news from the National Climate Center, the SST in the equator, the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean has been declining continuously since July this year, and it is expected to enter La Nina state in June+10/October in 5438, and a weak to moderate intensity La Nina event will be formed in winter. Because La Nina occurs in the winter from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 20021,the re-appearance of La Nina at the end of this year means that there will be two La Nina phenomena this year, which is called "Double La Nina Year".

What influence does La Nina have on us? And what effect will it have on crops?

1. What's the impact of La Nina?

"La Nina" refers to the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the equator, the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean is continuously cold in a large range, which is just the opposite of El Nino.

Compared with El Nino, La Nina has a much milder impact on the climate. To put it simply, El Nino often makes a region's climate abnormal, for example, it becomes extremely dry when it is rainy, but it is extremely high when it should be low. La Nina usually doesn't reverse the climate of a region much, but it will make the climate characteristics of this region more obvious, for example, it will make the originally arid climate drier and the cold weather colder. So from this point of view, El Nino has an important impact on the growth of crops because of its long duration and great destructive power, while La Nina disrupts the supply through potential drought or flood, thus causing price fluctuations.

Second, the impact on major crops.

The study also shows that La Nina index is positively related to agricultural product prices. According to analysis, when La Nina occurs, the probability of price increase of corn and wheat is as high as 50%. So, how is it affected?

1, soybean

The United States is the main soybean producing area in the world, and the soybean production of the United States, Brazil and Argentina accounts for almost 80% of the global soybean production. When La Nina occurs at the end of the year, South America may face a very serious drought, which will further affect the soybean planting and yield in Brazil and Argentina, especially Argentina is in the stage of soybean sowing and growth. If the drought is severe, it may lead to a reduction in production. If La Nina lasts until the following spring and summer, drought and rainy weather may also occur in the main soybean producing areas in the midwest of the United States, which will affect soybean growth and easily lead to weather speculation.

2. Corn

La Nina's influence on corn is full of uncertainty, but according to the historical situation, La Nina's influence on corn price is relatively large, which shows that the stronger La Nina is, the higher the price of corn will rise.

Domestically, the main corn planting areas in China are Huanghuai and Northeast China, and La Nina's influence is relatively limited. However, if La Nina continues, it may delay the next year's sowing, leading to an increase in the gap between supply and demand. At present, the quality of corn in North China is differentiated, and its advantages are gradually tilted to the northeast. If this situation continues, it will lead to rising corn prices in North China and eventually push up corn prices in Northeast China. On the other hand, the high global fertilizer price this year has greatly reduced the willingness of farmers around the world to plant corn, so under the influence of comprehensive factors, it also means that the potential of corn may increase next year.

3. Wheat

Canada is one of the major producers of wheat in the world, while Russia and Ukraine are also major producers of wheat. However, due to the La Nina incident, production may be reduced due to drought. 20 1 1 Affected by La Nina, the global wheat production decreased by 35 million tons.

Domestically, the winter sowing of wheat in northern Henan, southern Hebei, southwestern Shanxi and other places has been seriously delayed, which has caused the market to worry about wheat production next year, which in turn has led to a rise in wheat prices again. If the influence of La Nina is added, the trend of wheat may not fall sharply.

Third, the conclusion

Of course, we don't need to exaggerate the influence of the weather, because the market trend of agricultural products ultimately depends on the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and the weather only intensifies or amplifies this trend.

If we make a summary, on the whole, the supply and demand of corn will still be tight next year, and the domestic corn quality will be divided, while the international corn output will not increase enough.

At present, the global supply and demand of wheat is tightening, and the price of wheat in North America is soaring. For example, Canada is the world's largest exporter of hard wheat, and this year, Canada's hard wheat production has shrunk by nearly half, while the United States' production has reached the lowest level in 60 years. Affected by the rise in wheat prices, the prices of fermented foods such as bread are also facing a sharp rise. The situation of wheat will probably continue this trend next year.

In terms of soybeans, although La Nina has a high probability of affecting soybeans, with the decline of corn planting willingness, many farmers turn to planting soybeans, which may supplement soybean production to some extent.