Heavy: The US 2 trillion infrastructure plan is coming. What impact will it bring to us if we continue to discharge water?

After the huge fiscal stimulus plan of 1.9 trillion was launched, Biden's government continued to start the "burning money mode" in full swing. The next wave of 4 trillion large-scale infrastructure projects has been launched, and the previous 2 trillion fiscal stimulus plan has surfaced. Biden took "China Competition" as a gimmick to promote this plan, hoping to regard this huge infrastructure project as the biggest political legacy during his term of office, and hope to pay for it by increasing corporate tax. What exactly is Biden's 2 trillion stimulus plan? Can the plan be passed as scheduled? What impact will it have on China and the world?

According to American media reports, this round of infrastructure stimulus plan is an important part of Biden's "Building Better" plan, which is directed at China. The core goal of the stimulus plan is to reshape US economic policy and strengthen competition and contest with China.

Biden gave a speech in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, at 3 1 EST, detailing the use of financial funds, focusing on traditional infrastructure such as bridges and roads, as well as new infrastructure such as networks and base stations.

The plan covers energy, people's livelihood, manufacturing and other fields, and will directly invest about 2.25 trillion US dollars in financial funds. Among them, 300 billion dollars will be used to update, rebuild and expand the already backward power grid system in the United States, which was paralyzed in the extremely cold weather of the snowstorm the day before yesterday (this is also a policy to serve Biden's low-carbon clean energy and deal with climate change); 300 billion US dollars will be used to boost the manufacturing industry, promote the return of the manufacturing industry and solve the employment pressure; 300 billion dollars for housing construction; 650 billion US dollars will be used for the construction of traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges; 400 billion dollars will be used for the investment of family caregivers and the care of the elderly and the disabled; Another $400 billion is used to subsidize clean energy tax credits.

Another important goal of the plan is to improve environmental protection, education and health systems. It mainly includes replacing all lead-containing tracks in the drinking water system, plugging thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells, ensuring that all American families are connected to broadband networks, transforming public primary and secondary schools and universities, upgrading the veterans' hospital building and the federal government building, raising the salary of nursing staff, and increasing scientific research and development and investment.

The genius of Biden's administration lies in transferring the contradictions and signs of backward domestic infrastructure and the gap between the rich and the poor to China.

Biden plans to "compete with China" as an important reason and starting point to push Congress to approve this huge fiscal stimulus plan, because the current competition with China is the knowledge of the Democratic Party and the Party. Biden is "full of confidence" in this financial plan and believes that it will undoubtedly be approved and will revitalize the economic construction of the United States.

The first is the electric vehicle market. When talking about the investment in the electric vehicle industry, Biden said that the electric vehicle market in the United States is less than 30% of that in China, which is "unacceptable". Biden proposed to invest $654.38+074 billion to catch up with or even "surpass" the electric vehicle market in China in the future. Specifically, it includes establishing 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations by 2030, increasing tax breaks to stimulate people to buy pure electric vehicles, upgrading more and more school buses to electric vehicles, and accelerating the electrification of the federal government fleet.

Second, increase investment in science and technology and strengthen competition with China in the field of science and technology. The plan points out that in the past 25 years, the United States is one of the few big countries whose public investment in R&D has been decreasing year by year, while China has been increasing R&D year by year, and its R&D investment and expenditure have jumped to the second place in the world. Biden proposed that the US Congress approve an investment of $654.38+080 billion to enhance the leading edge of the United States in key technical fields such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, quantum computing, communication technology and clean energy, and upgrade the laboratory and research infrastructure in the United States. Biden also proposed to invest $35 billion to promote technological breakthroughs in climate reduction and let the United States lead the global climate and environmental protection banner.

Of course, such a huge expenditure will not be borne by the US government, because the US government has a fiscal deficit and is heavily in debt. Part of this 2 trillion will be handed over to the Federal Reserve, a printing machine, which will continue to operate printing machines and helicopters to distribute money and pay Americans through the production value and labor of people all over the world. The other part will be passed on to the enterprise and tax level, and harvested from American-funded enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises.

Another subsidiary plan of the $2 trillion plan has also surfaced: the Biden administration has put forward a plan on how to pay for this expenditure, that is, the "Made in America Tax Plan", while launching the "American Employment Plan". The plan proposes to increase the corporate tax rate in the United States from the current 2 1% to 28%, and also includes a series of tax reform measures to combat enterprises from taking advantage of loopholes in tax policy to avoid taxes, increase the tax burden on overseas investments and profits of multinational enterprises, and force multinational enterprises to invest and operate in China. At the same time, the plan also advocates canceling the preferential policies for fossil fuel enterprises in the current tax law. This series of tax policies is very different from the tax reduction policy during the Trump era. They intend to harvest those companies that once supported Trump and benefited from it during Trump's time.

There is no doubt that American enterprises and global workers have become the payers of Biden's fiscal stimulus plan, while Biden's government has accumulated political achievements and earned enough attention.

Biden's administration's small abacus is well played, but it is even more difficult to really pass and finally implement it.

* * * and the party have raised a lot of dissatisfaction and doubts about Biden's plan. Indeed, * * * and the Party also support infrastructure construction, but oppose increasing corporate taxes. Tax reduction for enterprises is the result of * * * and the "painstaking management" of the party during the founding of the People's Republic of China. If Biden harvests, it will be burned, and the relationship between * * * and the party and the business community will gradually drift away. Brother Jianguo will certainly mobilize the iron fans in Congress to oppose this plan. * * * And McConnell, the party boss, publicly stated that Biden's 2 trillion fiscal stimulus plan is more like a Trojan horse plan, because it will force the government to borrow more money and increase the tax burden of many departments.

Biden has anticipated that this plan will be under strong pressure from * * * and the party, so he intends to find another way and use the budget reconciliation procedure again. This procedure allows the 2 trillion capital construction plan to be passed by a simple majority without the support of party member. But "unfortunately", many moderate members of the Democratic Party have publicly expressed their disapproval of Biden's use of this procedure, and the 2 trillion stimulus plan must be carried out with the support of the party. Biden can bypass * * * and party member, but it is hard to bypass the Democratic Party anyway. So basically, the probability of passing this plan is very low, and Biden's dream of 2 trillion infrastructure projects may be shattered in advance.

Not to mention that the probability of passing this huge infrastructure project is very slim. Even if it is passed, it will be very difficult to implement, let alone achieve strong competition with China.

First of all, as far as new energy vehicles are concerned, China has entered a period of rapid development. In the future, the popularity of electric vehicles will be multiplied several times, and various new automobile manufacturers will emerge one after another, and the whole world is chasing the market share of electric vehicles in China. The United States does have Tesla, and it is the leader of new energy in the world. However, the traffic structure and car concept in the United States have seriously restricted the development of electric vehicles, and its market share is also very limited. A large number of rusty States and red neck States advocate the culture of large-displacement vehicles, and it is difficult to popularize electric vehicles. Moreover, the power network in the United States is intertwined and complicated, and the power facilities are extremely old. To realize the interconnection of charging networks, it is not enough to rely on hundreds of billions of support.

Looking at infrastructure, global infrastructure investment ranks 13 in the United States and 1 in China. China has entered a new era of all-round infrastructure, while the United States is still building old bridges and trying to build traditional infrastructure. China is vigorously deploying 5G construction and developing 6G network, but the United States is still trying to increase investment in broadband construction. It must be said that in the field of infrastructure, China and the United States have formed a generation gap, and we are enough to talk to the United States from the perspective of strength gap.

From the perspective of economic growth, Biden hopes that monetary and fiscal stimulus can boost the US economy. I'm afraid this goal will also fail. The economic recovery of the United States depends on the service industry, and 70% of GDP in the American economic structure also comes from the service industry. The strength of the service industry recovery does not depend on the strength of fiscal stimulus, and the fiscal stimulus plan can only wipe the boots. Biden's 2 trillion stimulus plan will only lead to further global inflation, contraction and depreciation, and the dollar itself will also be affected. In addition, the policy of increasing corporate tax burden will also weaken the enthusiasm of enterprises for innovation, lead to a decline in the vitality of the real economy, and eventually bite the United States itself.