Why can't earthquakes be predicted?

Not unpredictable, but difficult to predict!

Earthquake prediction method

There are generally three methods for earthquake prediction: seismic geology method, seismic statistics method and earthquake precursor method, but the three methods must be combined and supplemented to achieve better results.

Although earthquake prediction has not passed the standard, seismologists have formed a certain earthquake prediction system on the basis of long-term theoretical research and work practice. Of course, this system is not very effective and needs further improvement and perfection. At present, prediction is mainly based on theoretical calculation and precursory observation.

1. Seismological prediction method: "earthquake prediction" for short. A method to predict the three elements of earthquake by using the changes of space, time and intensity of seismic activity. Including wave velocity ratio, b value, circle layer, band, statistical prediction, etc. At present, seismologists pay more and more attention to the method of earthquake prediction, which is often used as one of the main basis for comprehensive analysis and prediction.

2. Earthquake precursor observation: according to the data provided by earthquake precursor monitoring facilities, after some processing, anomalies are extracted and earthquakes are predicted. Common precursor monitoring methods include: groundwater observation, topographic deformation observation, electric field observation, etc.

Macroscopic anomaly: a pre-earthquake anomaly, which can be found through human senses. It mainly includes abnormal living habits of animals, fluctuation of groundwater level, bubbling of water wells, oil slick, discoloration, terrestrial light, fireballs, heavy flowering of fruit trees and so on. This kind of anomaly appears in a large number in a large area and in a short time, which is the most accurate signal of earthquake coming. It is believed that with the popularization of earthquake science knowledge and communication facilities, it is more and more possible to predict earthquakes by using macroscopic anomalies.

Types of earthquake prediction

For different purposes, our earthquake prediction is divided into four types. According to national standards, the prediction of destructive earthquakes ten years later is called long-term prediction. Two years later it is called periodic prediction, three months later it is called short-term prediction, and ten days or so it is called imminent earthquake prediction.

Long-term prediction is very useful and important in future industry, civil architecture, economic development and urban layout. The state requires that buildings be fortified in some places with high danger or high earthquake density, and that buildings should have at least resistance. Some people take evacuation measures before the earthquake, others take emergency evacuation measures and so on. So this kind of earthquake prediction is different from other predictions. Although the weather forecast is also important, it means that it will rain. At most, I didn't hear it. I was caught in the rain. Earthquake prediction is different, because there are serious social consequences and the government must take measures, so the state has strict regulations on earthquake prediction. The power of earthquake prediction in various places is not in the earthquake prediction department, not in scientists, but in the government. Earthquake prediction is available in all provinces and cities. Of course, the earthquake department must first make a well-founded prediction and report it to the government, which will make a decision immediately. This is responsible to the people and to the localities. For example, Beijing must report to the State Council for approval. The state has special regulations on earthquake prediction.

Earthquake prediction case

Predicting earthquakes is a long-term wish of people. However, because the earthquake happened underground, it can't be directly observed, and the influencing factors are very complicated, which has not been completely solved. There are both successful experiences and lessons of failure.

Some successful cases:

1February 4, 975 Haicheng, Liaoning, earthquake with magnitude 7.3;

1May 29, 976, Longling, Yunnan, earthquake with magnitude 7.5;

1the truth behind the Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 on July 28th, 976;

1July 28, 976 Qinglong miracle-Tangshan earthquake;

1August, 976 16 Songpan earthquake with magnitude 7.2 in Sichuan;

1976165438+1the Sichuan Yanyuan earthquake of magnitude 6.7 on October 7;

1July 995 12 Menglian, Yunnan, earthquake with M = 7.3.