How do weather stations predict the maximum and minimum temperatures?

Weather forecast is based on meteorological observation data, applying the principles and methods of meteorology, dynamic meteorology and statistics to make a qualitative or quantitative forecast of the weather conditions in a certain area or a certain place in the future.

There are the following methods:

1. Empirical extrapolation method

Also known as trend method, it infers the future position and intensity of various weather systems according to their past moving paths and intensity change trends on the weather map. This method is effective when the movement and intensity of the weather system do not suddenly change, or when the weather system does not regenerate or die. But when it suddenly changes or the weather system is alive or dead, the forecast is often not realistic.

2. Similar to situational method

Also known as pattern method, it is to find some similar weather conditions from a large number of historical weather maps and summarize them into certain patterns. If the current weather situation is similar to that before a certain model, it can be predicted with reference to the later evolution of the model. Because similarity is always relative and can't be exactly the same, this method often leads to errors.

3. Statistical data method

Also known as correlation method, it is to use historical data to count the occurrence, development and movement of various weather systems in different seasons in history, get their average moving speed, find forecast indicators (such as cyclone generation and typhoon turning), and make predictions. This method cannot be applied to examples that have never appeared in history or examples that are fast and slow.

4. Physical analysis methods

Firstly, the physical factors of the birth, decline, migration and strong change of the weather system are analyzed, and then the weather forecast is made. This method usually works well. However, when the simplification and assumption of the motion equation reflecting these physical factors are not realistic, it will often lead to prediction errors, even far from the actual situation.

The above four methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and they need to complement each other, learn from each other's strong points and make comprehensive consideration to achieve better results.