With the continuous development of science and technology, what is the future development direction of automobiles?

Main listed companies in the power lithium battery industry: At present, the listed companies in the domestic power lithium battery industry mainly include Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. (300750), BYD (002594), Funeng Technology (688567), Yiwei Lithium Energy (3000 14), Guo Xuan Hi-Tech (002074) and Aoyang Shunchang (00207).

The core data of this paper: the shipment and installed capacity of power lithium batteries in China, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China.

1. Lithium batteries have developed rapidly, but there are still many pain points to be solved.

-Affected by the epidemic, the demand for power lithium batteries kept growing.

Lithium-ion battery is the focus of power battery research and development at present, which has obvious advantages such as low energy loss, high conversion efficiency and fast acceleration. According to the survey data of GGII, the supply and demand scale of power battery market in China in 20021year was significantly higher than that in 20 19, and the installed capacity of power lithium battery in China in 20021year was 154.5.

GWh, up142.9% year-on-year; Shipments were 220 GWh, up 175% year-on-year.

-Short battery life, slow charging and safety problems are the main pain points.

Electrification is the main development direction of traffic power under the vision of double carbon. Electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles emit less exhaust gas than internal combustion engines. If electricity comes from renewable energy, electric vehicles are an important way to achieve carbon neutrality in transportation.

However, lithium battery as a transportation power supply has the disadvantage of short battery life. Compared with fuel vehicles, the biggest pain point of pure electric vehicles is cruising range. Traditional fuel vehicles can travel more than 600 kilometers with a full tank of oil, while ordinary pure electric vehicles can only run 200-400 kilometers, while high-performance pure trams with a cruising range of more than 500 kilometers will face the dilemma of price reduction. In rainy or cold weather, the power lithium battery is obviously affected by the environment, and the actual cruising range of pure electric vehicles will further decline.

Secondly, long charging time is also a disadvantage of power lithium batteries. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicles can fill up the fuel tank in just a few minutes, while pure electric vehicles take about an hour to fill up even if they are fast, and as long as 6-8 hours if they are slow. The sharp increase of charging time reduces the experience of pure electric vehicles, which is a major obstacle to curb the growth of demand for power lithium batteries.

In addition, security risks deter consumers. According to the incomplete statistics of electric vehicle users' union, there were 72 fire accidents of new energy vehicles in 2020, involving at least 25 brand car companies and 38 different models, including passenger cars, buses, trucks and other vehicles with different uses. In addition to the hidden danger of battery spontaneous combustion, there are also many accident risks in the application of intelligent technology of electric vehicles, such as the failure of the automatic driving system of the core technology of "intelligence" and the safety hidden danger brought by over-marketing of the auxiliary driving function, which can not be ignored.

2. Hydrogen fuel cells are technically difficult, and complementary with lithium batteries is the best development direction.

-The market for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is still in its infancy.

Hydrogen fuel cell has obvious advantages in the problems of short battery life, long charging energy consumption and potential safety hazards, and the recycling of hydrogen fuel cell will not pollute the environment, so it is considered as a main development direction of low-carbon transportation power in the future. However, the commercial application of hydrogen fuel cells faces technical problems and high catalyst cost.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is an important carrier of hydrogen energy in transportation field. Judging from the current sales situation, by the end of 20021,the cumulative sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China was only 9246. It can be seen that the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle has just started in the China market, and the market is still in its infancy. According to the technical roadmap 2.0 of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 20021,it is predicted that the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will reach about 654.38+10,000 in 2025.

-The construction of hydrogen refueling stations in China is slow, making it difficult to apply them on a large scale.

20 16-202 1, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is increasing gradually, but the overall construction scale is still small. By the end of March 2022, China had operated 80 hydrogen refueling stations 180, built 18, 85 under construction and planned to build 148. The investment scale of domestic existing hydrogen refueling stations mostly exceeds120,000 yuan, and the cost of Shanghai Yilan Jinshan hydrogen refueling station is as high as 55 million yuan. High construction and operation cost and long investment return period are the biggest obstacles to the large-scale development of hydrogen refueling stations in China. At present, most hydrogen refueling stations are still at a loss, and there are problems that hydrogen is difficult and expensive for end users. The weak growth of terminal demand will inevitably restrict the construction and expansion of hydrogen refueling stations in turn. Fuel cell is considered as one of the ideal clean energy sources in the future, but the difficulty in large-scale construction of its supporting infrastructure is also a major obstacle to the application of hydrogen fuel cell in the transportation field.

Note: The pie chart data is the latest data as of the end of March 2022.

-Hydrogen fuel cells have advantages in special transportation fields.

It is found that both power lithium battery and hydrogen fuel cell have their own comparative advantages and pain points. How to solve or avoid pain points and give full play to comparative advantages has become the key to the development of new energy transportation power. Finding the most suitable application scenario is an important way to maximize the advantages. From the perspective of sales structure, commercial vehicles are the focus of promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at present. In 20021year, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China increased 1894, and commercial vehicles were the absolute main force, including buses 1042 and 777 heavy trucks.

Compared with fuel, hydrogen fuel cell has the comparative advantages of zero carbon emission and high conversion efficiency. Compared with lithium-ion batteries, hydrogen fuel cells have the comparative advantages of long cruising range, short charging and energy consumption time and controllable safety hazards. These comparative advantages determine that hydrogen fuel cells have high applicability in application scenarios such as long distance, long continuous working time and heavy load. In view of the high construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations, the development of hydrogen fuel cells can start with special vehicles (such as logistics vehicles and sanitation vehicles) with clear application scenarios and fixed driving routes, which is beneficial to the layout and construction of hydrogen refueling stations.

-Hydrogen fuel cells have great potential in the field of air transportation.

The scale of carbon emissions from civil aviation accounts for about 10% of the total transportation emissions. Air emissions release gas at high altitude, and the impact on the environment is 2-4 times that of similar ground sources. It can be seen that aviation is an important starting point for traffic power to reduce carbon and emissions.

Compared with lithium-ion batteries, air transportation is also one of the advantages of hydrogen fuel cells. The mass energy density of hydrogen energy far exceeds that of other energy sources. A complete hydrogen fuel cell propulsion system can store 3-5 times more energy than a battery power system with the same mass. In order to improve the energy supply of the battery system, in addition to improving the energy density through technology research and development, it can generally be achieved by expanding the battery volume. However, the aircraft has great restrictions on the mass and volume of the power system, and the application of power batteries in the aviation field is difficult. Hydrogen fuel cell system has obvious advantages in energy density and can be used as a beneficial supplement to lithium batteries.

Generally speaking, hydrogen fuel cells will develop rapidly in long-distance transportation, special vehicles, aviation and other fields in the future, and form a benign complement with lithium-ion batteries.

3. The fuel share will gradually decrease, but it is difficult to be completely replaced in a short time.

-Under the goal of "carbon neutrality", the decline in the share of fuel and electricity is an inevitable trend.

Under the vision of "double carbon", the state has successively issued a series of relevant target plans for "carbon reduction and emission reduction", and made a clear plan for the proportion of new energy vehicles in new transportation. In the future, the share of fuel as traffic power will inevitably show a downward trend.

-The guidance price of the same fuel vehicle is generally lower than the subsidy price of the same new energy vehicle.

However, there are still many obstacles to the popularization of new energy vehicles, and the high price brought by high production costs is one of them. At present, from the low-priced low-end to the high-priced high-end, whether it is a pure electric car or a hybrid car, the subsidy price is generally higher than the guide price of the fuel version of the same model. Taking Chang 'an Yidong and Yidong New Energy as examples, the guide price of fuel version Yidong is 729- 103900 yuan, while the subsidy guide price of Yidong New Energy (pure electricity) is 1299- 149900 yuan. Even if the government subsidizes new energy vehicles, the price of the new energy version is 57,000 yuan higher than that of the fuel version.

Note: The inquiry time of the guide price is March 2022.

—— In the environment dominated by coal and electricity, the real environmental benefits of trams are limited.

Compared with fuel vehicles, one of the competitive advantages of electric vehicles is "environmental protection". Although there is no doubt about the absolute advantages of pure electric vehicles in emissions, the emissions in the process of electric energy production can not be ignored, which is worth considering. Data show that in 20021year, China's power pattern is still dominated by thermal power generation, of which coal-fired power generation accounts for more than 60%. In the environment dominated by coal and electricity, part of the emissions of electric vehicles have been transferred to the upstream.

In addition, the recycling life of batteries is short, and a large number of waste batteries will pollute the environment again during the treatment. According to the data in the Research Report on the Economic Potential of Battery Cycle of New Energy Vehicles in 2030 released by Greenpeace, there will be more than 700 retired power batteries in China from 202 1 to 2030.

Although GWh can reduce some carbon emissions through effective cascade utilization, the pollution caused by the battery recycling end can not be ignored.

It can be seen that the cleanliness and environmental protection of electric vehicles are only in the use stage. From the whole life cycle, the real environmental benefits of trams are limited.

-traditional automobile manufacturers continue to exert their efforts in the research and development of internal combustion engine technology.

At the same time, the internal combustion engine technology is developing in the direction of high efficiency and low carbon, and improving the thermal efficiency of the engine is the main way to reduce the carbon emissions of fuel vehicles. At present, the thermal efficiency of mainstream engines in the world is in the range of 30%-38%, and the thermal efficiency of a few engines in mass production has exceeded 40%. BYD's dedicated Xiaoyun-plug-in 1.5L high-efficiency engine has a thermal efficiency of 43.04%, surpassing Toyota, Honda and Mazda to become the world's highest thermal efficiency gasoline engine. The improvement of thermal efficiency is helpful to energy saving and emission reduction of fuel vehicles. With the further development of internal combustion engine technology in the future, the gap between fuel power and new energy is expected to narrow. Comparatively speaking, the development of more mature and stable internal combustion engine technology may still be more favored by commercial applications.

To sum up, traditional fuel vehicles may gradually decrease in the future, but based on the price advantage of fuel vehicles and the continuous improvement of internal combustion engine technology, it is difficult to completely replace fuel power with lithium-ion motor with questionable real environmental benefits in the short term.

4. In the future, fuel, lithium battery and hydrogen fuel will form a three-legged pattern.

Based on the above analysis, Forward-looking Carbon Neutralization Strategy Research Institute believes that fuel power will not be completely replaced by new energy power in the short term because of its long-term accumulated stable demand and irreplaceable performance. Lithium-ion battery and hydrogen fuel cell develop in their respective comparative advantages and can form benign complementarity. In the next few decades, the transportation power market will be dominated by fuels, lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells.

The above data refer to Foresight Industry Research Institute's Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China Power Lithium Battery Industry.