Why is it 165438+ October and the temperature is still 32 degrees?

First of all, the first question is that it is not winter. Although we have just passed the solar term "beginning of winter", the solar term does not mean that we have really entered a specific season. On the contrary, Shanghai is still autumn, that is, the average daily temperature for five consecutive days is within the range of 10-22 degrees.

One of the reasons for this warmth is that the subtropical high recovered and moved northward. As can be seen from the weather map at 8 o'clock this morning, the northern end of the middle subtropical high has come to the southern Zhejiang-southwestern Jiangxi-northern Guangxi line. For 165438+ 10, the subtropical high in the north is not common.

In the next two days, the subtropical high will launch a more violent impact, and at the same time drive the strengthening of the low-altitude temperature field. With the warm front effect of the cold air going north before going south, many places in the south may challenge the highest temperature record in mid-October 165438+.

According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory,165438+1October 12 will be the peak of high temperature, with the highest temperature of 28-32 degrees in the south, and the local temperature may exceed 32 degrees. Although the high temperature lasts for 39-40 degrees in summer, 32 degrees can even be regarded as a tolerable temperature, but this level of high temperature is very rare in165438+1October.

In fact, the continuous sunny and warm weather these days has caused a wide range of high temperatures in the central and eastern regions (except coastal areas). The average temperature in Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Guizhou and other provinces is 2-4 degrees higher than in previous years. With the opening and strengthening of the next round of sunny and warm process, the warmer area will expand rapidly and the color will get warmer.

In this round of sunny and warm process, there are two points to pay attention to. First of all, the south branch trough in the Indo-Myanmar region is gradually exerting its strength. As the south branch trough moves eastward, the water vapor in the Bay of Bengal will follow the west wind to China, and it will start to make the weather wet. In addition, there will be some weak water vapor gradually northward from the sea. At this time, the cold air outside the Great Wall has begun to exert its strength and is ready to go south.

When cold and warm air collide violently, it will produce a low vortex shear system, which will lead to a round of heavy rainfall and snowfall. This round of rain and snow process will be fierce in North China and Northeast China. This round of precipitation is not small for North China. In addition, for southeastern Inner Mongolia, because of the high temperature at first, precipitation appears in the form of rain, which will turn into snow under the deep induction of cold air. The phase change of rain and snow is easy to cause some problems in production and life.

In addition, due to the strong southeast wind along the coast, the water vapor in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea is deep, while the clear sky in Wan Li in most parts of the east is conducive to clear sky radiation, and the temperature drops rapidly at night. This makes it impossible for the atmosphere to carry so much water vapor, resulting in the radiation fog advection fog. Early this morning, the Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory issued a foggy orange warning, pointing out that the visibility in most parts of the city is less than 200 meters, and in some areas it is less than 50 meters. Although it is not opaque, I really can't see anything farther.

Of course, on the bright side, more water vapor brought by the activity of the south branch trough is beneficial to the relief of drought in the south of the Yangtze River. In fact, the Central Meteorological Observatory has downgraded the orange warning of meteorological drought to a yellow warning. It is estimated that in the next three days, there will be small to moderate rain in parts of the eastern part of Southwest China, Jianghan, Jianghuai, northern and eastern Jiangnan, and heavy rain in parts of northeastern Chongqing, which will help alleviate meteorological drought.