The Impact of Economic Crisis on China's Outbound Tourism

The financial crisis will affect the development of China's tourism economy from many aspects.

1 the impact of the financial crisis on the direction of tourism investment

Shao Qiwei, director of the National Tourism Administration, said at the China Tourism Investment Fair held in Ningbo, Zhejiang, "China's tourism industry is standing at a new starting point, achieving a historic leap from a world tourism power to a world tourism power. Although the change from' big' to' strong' is a word difference, the connotation is qualitatively different. " China tourism should realize the 11th Five-Year Plan and cultivate it into an important industry of the national economy. From the perspective of industrial development, we need to grasp three important links, namely, meeting the growing demand for tourism consumption, establishing a standardized and orderly tourism market, and accelerating the construction of a number of high-grade and high-quality tourism facilities. Among them, the construction of tourism facilities is directly related to tourism investment. Financial institutions, especially investment financial institutions, are the main investment channels of tourism in various countries, which not only affects the normal operation of tourism economy, but also affects the long-term development of tourism.

1. 1 The scale of foreign investment in China's tourism industry has shrunk.

The financial crisis led to the bankruptcy of 14 financial institutions, and other financial institutions also struggled and suffered heavy losses. It is reported that seven major banks in China, including China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, China CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank, hold more than $300 million in Lehman Brothers bonds. When these bonds become worthless waste paper, China banks will directly lose billions of RMB, which will obviously affect the company's profit performance. In recent days, most bank stocks have fallen by more than 20%. Tourism is a service industry, and the products it provides meet people's spiritual needs. It can be predicted that the financial crisis will first affect the investment in tourism. For example, Hong Kong Investment Company of Philippine Guanghua Group purchased 4 1 000 square meters of land in Dalian Golden Beach on 1993, and established Guanghua Resort on 1996 with a registered capital of 7.5 million. The project plans to build a five-star resort hotel, and 1997 has started construction, but it has been suspended due to the Southeast Asian financial crisis. Similarly, many ASEAN countries have also stopped the construction of some tourist facilities, such as transportation and tourism facilities jointly built by Thailand, Myanmar and Laos, most of which are in a state of suspension or delay.

According to the calculation of China National Tourism Administration, the average annual growth rate of total tourism investment in China in recent five years is 12.2%. If this speed is maintained, by 2065,438+00, the total tourism investment in China will reach19 billion yuan. However, the growth rate of 65,438+02.2% is based on the investment of foreign enterprises and financial institutions in tourism. The financial crisis will make foreign financial institutions control the outflow of funds, which will inevitably affect the upgrading of tourism in China in the next five years, and funds will once again become a restrictive factor for the development of tourism in China.

1.2 Opportunities for China's tourism industry to enter foreign markets have emerged.

Based on the horizontal division of labor system of different business types, traditional travel agencies in China have management modes that are not suitable for the development of modern service industry, such as contracting and linking, which eventually leads to the ills of "scattered, weak, poor and small" tourism market. The annual turnover of Chunqiu is about 2 billion (excluding air ticket business). Jinjiang is more than one billion, and Yunnan Tourism Industry Group is about 70 million to 80 million. The market scale is below 2 billion, and the whole tourism industry lacks concentration. When some large domestic travel agencies reach the turnover of 5 billion respectively, it is possible to compete with foreign tourism enterprises. Grasping the opportunity to complete the transformation from "small but comprehensive" to "big but expert" is the key to the current tourism development.

The region where the financial crisis occurred will have a substantial currency devaluation, and the business of tourism enterprises in crisis areas will also be bleak. This will be a good opportunity for China tourism enterprises to go international. China tourism enterprises are small in scale and weak in competitiveness. During the financial crisis in Europe and America, the international competitiveness of domestic tourism will be greatly reduced, and the tourism industry can make full use of this period to integrate and upgrade itself and join hands to enter the international market.

2 the impact of the financial crisis on the tourism market

From the perspective of marketing, the tourism market is a collection of real tourists and potential tourists. Scholars usually divide the tourism market into international tourism market (including inbound tourism market and outbound tourism market) and domestic tourism market. The financial crisis will greatly change the structure of China's inbound tourism market.

2. 1 Changes in the scale and structure of China's inbound tourism market

The financial crisis will inevitably affect the scale of inbound tourism in China and cause changes in the market structure.

2. 1. 1 The scale of the inbound tourism market has shrunk.

The devaluation of the currency and the increase in the number of unemployed people caused by the financial crisis will lead to the decline of the total disposable income. Tourism products are not necessities of life. Therefore, when the income drops, people will first buy less non-essential goods, and tourism products will bear the brunt, which will objectively reduce the desire to travel abroad.

On the one hand, currencies in financial crisis areas will depreciate sharply. During the Asian financial crisis, the Thai baht depreciated by 40% against the US dollar (1:43). Malaysia's currency depreciated by about 20%; The Singapore dollar also fell by more than 7%; 1997 65438+February 10, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Korean won fell to1:1719; The exchange rate of USD against JPY also broke through1:130; 1997 65438+February 10, and the ratio of the US dollar to the Indonesian rupiah was 1: 4575, down more than 60% from the beginning of the year. The exchange rate of Singapore dollar against the US dollar was 1.633: 1, and the Philippine peso against the US dollar also dropped to 35.585: 6575. The devaluation of the domestic currency has greatly reduced the purchasing power of citizens abroad, and the cost of traveling abroad is relatively high, which is not conducive to the overseas travel of domestic citizens. Many people may change the time and place of traveling abroad. For example, before the Asian financial crisis, Thai people only needed 40,000 baht to travel to Europe, and later they spent 80,000 baht. The Thai baht plummeted and the income decreased, which made many Thais hesitate to travel abroad. At the same time, the financial crisis will produce a large number of unemployed people. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor in early September 2008, the unemployment rate in the United States soared to the highest point in the past five years in August, and the number of employed people fell for the eighth consecutive month. In August, the number of non-agricultural employees decreased by 84,000. Employment has been reduced in a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, construction and service industries. In June and July, the revised reduction rate of non-agricultural employment expanded, and in June, the revised reduction rate expanded to 65,438+million, with the preliminary data of only 5,654,38+million. In August, the unemployment rate soared by 0.4 percentage points to 6. 1%, the highest level since September 2003. The last time the unemployment rate was below 5% was in February this year. On June 5438+08, New York State government officials predicted that the financial crisis may cause the state to lose as many as 40,000 jobs in the next two years. Currency devaluation has greatly reduced the wealth of tourists in crisis areas.

On the other hand, China's currency exchange rate will not change much in the near future. However, due to the devaluation of currencies in crisis countries, the RMB will appreciate substantially, which will indirectly lead to an increase in the price of domestic tourism products and objectively curb the tourism demand of foreign consumers. Therefore, the scale of inbound tourism of European and American tourists will inevitably decrease.

The financial crisis will prompt countries in crisis areas to take many relevant measures to restrict outbound tourism, encourage domestic tourism, protect their own interests and control capital outflow.

For example, during the Asian financial crisis, the Thai government immediately restored the exit tax that was abolished in 199 1 and proposed to increase the exit tax for people going abroad to 2,000 baht (about US$ 57) each time, and also increased the handling fee for handling passports abroad from 1000 baht to 10000 baht. In addition, the airport tax on international flights will be raised from the current 250 baht to 500 baht. Although the government has not taken any action to discourage nationals from traveling abroad, it has greatly strengthened the publicity of domestic tourism and mobilized China people to travel and spend their holidays in China. Malaysia has also taken corresponding measures to increase exit tax and passport handling fee. At the beginning of February, 65438, the government promulgated new austerity measures, "requiring nationals to spend their holidays in China", and proposed that "companies that provide convenience for employees to spend their holidays in China can enjoy tax-free concessions". The Malaysian Prime Minister also launched the "Buy ASEAN" campaign, "urging ASEAN countries to buy goods from each other instead of buying more expensive foreign goods to help them tide over the financial crisis". The South Korean government has formulated "Countermeasures to Overcome Economic Difficulties" and put forward the call of "eliminating consumption and saving foreign exchange". In order to save foreign exchange, the government requires a total ban on all unimportant overseas business trips; Reduce the overseas training plan for ordinary civil servants and leaders 15% to 50%; When you have to go abroad, you must take a Korean civil aviation flight; And called for an appropriate reduction in the number of international activities. At the same time, South Korea will also strengthen customs control, and control the excessive growth of overseas travel and study by raising the national tax and improving the examination conditions of overseas study trainees. Non-governmental organizations such as Korean consumer groups and ordinary citizens actively responded to the government's call, spontaneously organized rallies and parades, publicized saving foreign exchange, buying domestic products and controlling overseas travel, and called on all families and individuals to contribute to overcoming the crisis. A large number of citizens gave up their plans to go abroad for sightseeing, and many newlyweds changed their honeymoon abroad to China ... Undoubtedly, these policies and publicity will definitely affect the number of tourists in China.

The impact of the European and American financial crisis on the scale of China's inbound tourism has already appeared. From June to August, 2008, the number of inbound tourists in China was 86,733,400, up 0.35% year-on-year. Among them, foreigners 16469400, down by 2.00%. According to the calculation, from June 5438 to August, the national tourism (foreign exchange) income was 26.686 billion US dollars, down 2.2 1% year-on-year. According to the information analysis of Chongqing New Century Cruise Company and European and American markets, the number of overseas tourists visiting the Three Gorges in 2009 may be reduced by 50%. The decline in consumer willingness and ability caused by the financial crisis is the main factor in the decrease of tourists.

2. 1.2 changes in the structure of the inbound tourism market.

On the basis of the scale change of the inbound tourism market, the structure of the inbound tourism market in China will also change. In 2007, Asia accounted for 62%, Europe and North America accounted for 33% (see figure 1), and other countries and regions only accounted for 5%. After the crisis, the tourist markets in Europe and North America will be greatly reduced, and correspondingly, the tourist markets in other countries and regions will be expanded.

Although the number of international inbound tourists in China is relatively small compared with the number of domestic tourists, their income accounts for a large proportion. For example, the number of inbound tourists in 2007 was 13 1873300, equivalent to 8.2% of domestic tourists, up 5.5% over the previous year. However, tourism revenue reached 41.91.90 billion US dollars (equivalent to about 290 billion yuan), equivalent to 37.76% of domestic tourism revenue, up 23.5% over the previous year. During the Asian financial crisis, the number of inbound tourists in Asia changed little, but the structure changed. Many regions and enterprises have shifted the focus of market development to European and American countries, and the number of inbound tourists in Europe and America has increased steadily. Because Europe and America are mostly long-distance tourists, the per capita tourism expenditure is relatively large, which offsets the income reduction caused by the slow growth of the number of inbound tourists in Asia. The economic crisis broke out in Europe and America. According to the behavioral characteristics of European and American tourism consumers, the scale of outbound tourism will be greatly reduced. Although we can rely on the strong growth of inbound tourism in Asia (see figure 1 and figure 2), the structure of the tourism market will change dramatically. Judging from the distribution of inbound tourism in Europe (see table 1), Russia is the main market, accounting for about 48%, followed by Britain, Germany and France, accounting for about 26%. Britain, Germany and France are the hardest hit areas of the financial crisis, and Russia is also involved in the financial crisis in Europe and America. Therefore, the share of Britain, Germany and France in the European market will be greatly reduced, and Russia will also decline to a certain extent.

2.2 China outbound tourism market structure changes

Since 1993, the scale of outbound tourism in China has been expanding (see Figure 3), from 3.74 million to 40.954 million, an increase of nearly 1 1 times. From June to August 2008, the number of China citizens traveling abroad was 30,674,200, a year-on-year increase of 15.54%. Outbound tourism has become a big market for tourism in China. After 2008, the currency devaluation caused by the financial crisis will make the tourism prices of European and American countries relatively lower. For China tourists, the greater the devaluation of destination currencies, the lower the cost of traveling to these countries. The result of currency devaluation is beneficial to the competitiveness of international tourism in these countries and promotes the development of inbound tourism in these countries. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, in the summer of 2008, the number of international tourists visiting the United States increased by 65,438+05%, while consumption increased by 20%.

However, judging from the distribution of destination countries, China's situational tourism is mostly concentrated in Asian countries, and relatively few in Europe and America. The United States has only opened its tourism market to parts of China. In 2007, the top ten countries and regions by population were Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Russia, Thailand, the United States, Singapore and Malaysia. It can be predicted that in the next few years, the United States and European countries will quickly become important destination countries for China's overseas travel due to the financial crisis, and Asian countries will experience a relative decline. The existing pattern of outbound tourism will undergo great changes.

2.3 changes in the domestic tourism market structure in China

According to the estimation of the World Tourism Organization (WTO), domestic tourists account for more than 90% of the total number of people participating in tourism activities in the world every year. China has a civilization history of 5,000 years. Since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, a large number of artificial tourist attractions have been built in various parts of China, and the domestic tourism market is undoubtedly the largest in China. According to statistics, in 2007, China's domestic tourism continued to grow strongly, and the number of tourists and tourism revenue maintained double-digit growth. The number of domestic tourists reached 16 1 100 million, an increase of 15.5% over the previous year. Among them, there are 6120 thousand urban residents and 998 million rural residents. Domestic tourism revenue was 777.062 billion yuan, an increase of 24.7% over the previous year. Among them, the tourism consumption of urban residents was 555.039 billion yuan, and that of rural residents was 222.023 billion yuan. The per capita expenditure on domestic tourism was 482.65 yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the previous year. Among them, the per capita consumption of domestic tourism of urban residents is 906.93 yuan, and that of rural residents is 222.47 yuan.

Because the fundamentals of national economic development are still good, the development trend of domestic tourism will not be greatly affected. But the structure may change. Affected by the devaluation of currencies in various countries in the financial crisis, the number of outbound tourists in China will increase, and some high-income groups will increase the motivation to travel abroad, especially in Europe and America, and correspondingly reduce domestic tourism. However, the rural market for domestic tourism may be further expanded. The important decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee on rural economic reform will promote the rapid development of rural economy, and farmers' income may increase substantially, thus triggering farmers' enthusiasm for tourism and making up for the market vacancy caused by outbound tourism.

3 the impact of the financial crisis on the pillar industries of tourism

Hotel industry, travel agency and international aviation industry are the three pillars of tourism, and the financial crisis will inevitably have an impact on these three pillar industries.

3. 1 The impact of the financial crisis on the hotel industry

Tourist hotels are the main infrastructure for tourism development, and their quantity, scale and service quality are important indicators to measure the level of tourism development. However, compared with scenic spots, accommodation facilities such as hotels are more replaceable. Moreover, if the economy is depressed, the downward adjustment of the tourism budget may be directly reflected in the downward adjustment of the accommodation budget, and the travel budget of enterprises will also be lowered, so the demand for high-star hotels will be relatively suppressed. After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, the hotel occupancy rate in ASEAN countries fell to the lowest point due to the decrease of tourists. The hotel occupancy rate in Singapore dropped from 79% in 1997 to 7 1% in 1998. The hotel surplus in Vietnam is more serious. Before the crisis, the occupancy rate was only 30% ~ 40%, and it dropped to 20% in the first quarter of 1998. The occupancy rate of hotel rooms in Indonesia has also dropped from 75.8% before the crisis to 35% of 1998.

From June 5438 to 10, 2008, a new report released by Smith Travel Research Company showed that the occupancy rate of all star-rated hotels in the world declined in August. During the Canton Fair in 2008, the booking rate of some five-star hotels in Guangzhou was low. In the past, the scene of soaring housing prices and hard-to-find housing at the housing fair no longer existed, and the quotations of major hotels also hit a new low since the Spring Fair this year. When Home Inns was listed on NASDAQ in 2006, the highest valuation reached 50.08 yuan. In the past 52 weeks, the lowest share price was only $9.50, and the share price was halved again. In the past six months, the share price of Home Inn has plummeted from more than $20 to around 10. This shows that consumers' expectations of the hotel industry have been greatly reduced. It is understood that since May 2008, the number of hotel tourists in Sanya has dropped significantly. Statistics from Sanya Tourism Industry Development Bureau show that in the first three quarters, Sanya hotels received 347,000 overseas tourists, down 7.39% year-on-year, and only completed 55.43% of the annual plan.

In the United States and Europe, the growth rate of income per room slowed down to 65,438+0.0% in August 2008, compared with 65,438+02.6% in the same period last year. In the second quarter of 2008, the Asia-Pacific consumer confidence index was 56.0, compared with 69.3 in the same period last year.

3.2 The impact of the financial crisis on travel agencies

Travel agency is the organizer of the six elements of tourism, and it is the bridge between China Unicom's tourist destinations and tourists. Compared with scenic spots and hotels, travel agencies have lower bargaining power and the highest substitutability because they can't control resources. There is no doubt that the crisis has had an impact on inbound tourism, so the competition between travel agencies for tourists will be very fierce. Some large travel agencies have certain advantages in bargaining with airlines and hotels because of their strong strength. They can attract tourists with lower tour fees, implement small profits but quick turnover and expand market share. However, some small and medium-sized travel agencies are weak in competition, which is often unsustainable and their living space is greatly threatened. Many travel agencies were ruthlessly eliminated in the competition. For example, during the Asian financial crisis, a large travel agency in Jakarta, Indonesia, was forced to close 16 branches due to a sharp drop in business, and the overseas travel service department laid off 94% of its staff, from 85 to 5.

It is reported that Dongguan Everbright Traffic Travel Agency closed down in mid-September 2008, which is also the first Dongguan travel agency to close down in this financial crisis. At present, there are110 small travel agencies in Guangdong, and their employees are either dismissed or sent home to wait for their posts. Some big travel agencies can only cope with difficulties by adjusting their product lines. On June 5, 2008, at 438+00, BTG's share price plummeted 9.07% to 8.22 yuan, with the lowest price reaching 8.20, down 86.87% from the highest price of 62.44 yuan. This shows that the "severe winter season" operated by travel agencies has brought.

3.3 The impact of the financial crisis on the aviation industry

This crisis will also have a great impact on the international aviation industry. The global aviation industry is facing the worst living environment since the "9. 1 1 incident" because of the double blow of high oil prices and falling market demand, and the financial crisis is undoubtedly worse. During the Asian financial crisis, due to the shortage of funds, some countries canceled the original purchase orders. Malaysia was forced to cancel the purchase order of 24 Boeing aircraft (including the new B747), and Thailand also changed its plan to lease wide-body long-range passenger aircraft. Philippine Airlines, established 57 years ago, suffered the most. 1In August, 1998, Philippine Airlines was forced to declare bankruptcy at midnight on September 23rd, with debts of more than US$ 2 billion. In addition, in the wave of price reduction in the whole tourism industry, airlines of various countries are also forced to accept the challenge and compete for customers to reduce prices. For example, the ticket prices in Malaysia are 30% lower than before the crisis, and those in the Philippines and Indonesia are 50% lower.

According to the forecast of IATA, the global aviation industry will lose $2.3 billion in 2008. In addition, in the first half of 2008, 25 airlines around the world declared bankruptcy or terminated their operations. The forecast report shows that after the number of international passengers dropped by 0.5% in July 2008, the number of international passengers of airlines in the Asia-Pacific region dropped by 3. 1% again in August. In August 2008, the overall passenger load factor of China Southern Airlines was 62.75%, down 5.48% year-on-year. The load factor was 7 1.69%, down 8.73% year-on-year. The last airline to release data, China Eastern Airlines, had an overall load factor of 6 1.7 1% in August, down 3.84% year-on-year, and the load factor was 69.43%, down 8.63% year-on-year.

The financial crisis in Europe and America will continue for a long time, the impact of the crisis is gradually spreading, and consumers' expectations for future economic development are gradually declining. This will be an unprecedented disaster for international tourism. A clear understanding of the possible impact of the financial crisis on China's tourism industry is conducive to the China government to plan ahead and make decisive decisions. This crisis may bring huge losses to the tourism industry, but it will also provide opportunities for China tourism enterprises to expand overseas. If we adjust our business strategy in time and seize the opportunity of international expansion, China's tourism industry will grow and develop in the crisis. China's tourism economy will also develop healthily in the crisis.