How much impact does Japan's nuclear sewage discharge have on Hainan tourism?

The leakage of nuclear power plants in Japan occurred in March 1 1, 20 1. In the same year, the number of tourists in Hainan increased significantly, the average stay time was extended from 3.82 days in the previous year to 3.89 days, and the travel expenses increased from 646.45 yuan/person-day to 7 10.62 yuan/person-day.

20 1 1 year does not seem to be negatively affected by the leakage of nuclear power plants, whether in terms of growth rate or absolute value. Of course, 20 1 1 year is the first year of tax-free opening of outlying islands, which may be an important factor to stimulate the surge of tourists.

In 20 10, there were 720,000 tourists visiting China/kloc-0, and 790,000 people visiting Korea for the first time (46%). In 20 1 10, the number of tourists visiting China reached 2.22 million, an increase of 18.4% over the previous year.

In 2009, the number of people coming to China was 1 10,000, and in 2065.438+00, it was10.3 million. Originally, the relaxation of Japanese domestic visas in 2065.438+00 could greatly increase the number of Japanese tourists, but the Diaoyu Islands incident occurred in September of the same year, and the number of Japanese tourists dropped sharply in the fourth quarter.

20 1 1 year, and the number of people going to China is 104 million, which is back to the level of 2009. But from another point of view, even the nuclear radiation leakage+Diaoyu Island incident can't stop this/kloc-0.0 million people from going to Japan, and at least 500,000 of them are tourists, so people's demand for certain places or certain types of tourism will not change easily.

Therefore, judging from the length of the score, the impact of Japan's nuclear sewage discharge this time.

First of all, in the long-term 10 year, nuclear sewage has spread all over the world, and no coastal city can escape. So, will those coastal areas really be uninhabited? As an island country like Japan, will Taiwan Province Province really be uninhabited? I don't think so. Just as this COVID-19 can get used to it, I think this nuclear sewage will eventually get used to it in some way.

In the medium term, the nuclear sewage will spread to the coastal cities of China and the whole Southeast Asia within 240 days, and all the popular coastal tourist cities and countries in Asia will suffer. Will this part of the tourism demand be suspended?

Based on the above, there will still be people who are not afraid to travel after the nuclear leak in Japan. I think this part of the tourism demand will be reduced, but it will not be greatly reduced. People will still go to the seaside to play. This demand for coastal play will not change. You can't say that playing along the river will replace this part of demand. These two needs are different.

The next thing I want to talk about is the short-term impact.

Combined with the ideas of people around you, the short-term impact can be roughly divided into two types:

1, Hainan tourism will be over, and the number of people leaving the group will increase this year.

2. Before the nuclear sewage comes, hurry to play, hurry to eat seafood, and never eat again after a fierce meal.

I prefer the latter this time. Of course, there is also the suspicion that the ass decides the head. Now my duty-free status is even heavier.

Moreover, in 20 19, the number of Japanese tourists to China has reached 9.59 million, and that of South Korea has reached 6.02 million. The sum of these two amounts to 156 10000. This year, the number of tourists from South Korea and Japan is likely to decline due to the influence of nuclear sewage. Those who don't go will have potential tourism needs that have not been met and may choose Hainan instead.