Pig prices rose 10.24%. Cold and New Year's Eve are linked. Will the pig price go up or down after the year? There's news

The Spring Festival is approaching, and the great cold solar terms are coming. This year's "Great Cold and New Year's Eve linked together" is also relatively rare in the whole 2 1 century. As the saying goes, "Great cold lasts until the end of the year", and the Great Cold is the last day of the Lunar New Year. In fact, this is mainly influenced by the calendar used by China. The lunar calendar is a "yin and yang calendar".

As we all know, the 24 solar terms are an elephant trunk calendar and a solar calendar. Therefore, the annual arrival season in 24 solar terms is relatively fixed, with June 20th ~1October 20th ~ 265,438+0 as the severe cold solar terms.

However, Lunar New Year's Eve is not a fixed day. Generally speaking, because there is a leap month in the lunar calendar, a leap month is set up to prevent the season from being out of touch with the weather. Because there is a time difference of 1 1 day between the tropic year and the lunar calendar, the rule of "setting up a leap month" is based on the winter to the first month in the future, that is, the year of the rabbit in the lunar calendar. It is because of the leap moon that the great cold is associated with the joy of New Year's Eve!

The domestic pig market is at the end of the year. Recently, the pig price has changed from its previous fatigue, and the market has shown a trend of rising against the trend. As we all know, the domestic pig price dropped sharply in 1 month, and the average price of sanyuan pigs outside the beginning of the month was 16.48 yuan/kg. However, near the end of the twelfth lunar month, the average price of live pigs dropped to 14.06 yuan/kg, and the pig price dropped by 65,438 yuan/kg.

However, the twelfth lunar month is over. With the slow pace of slaughter at the breeding end, the export enthusiasm of pig enterprises in the group decreased, the slaughterhouse concentrated on stocking and maintained a high slaughter volume, and the price of live pigs quietly rose. On June 20th, 65438, the average price of live pigs rose to 15.4 yuan/kg, which was 65438 yuan/kg higher than the previous days.

The key to this round of pig price rising against the trend lies in the change of market purchase and sale pattern. On the one hand, the end cycle of breeding is advanced, the number of live pigs in the market is reduced and superimposed, the retail investors and the second fattening feeling before the year are weak, and the supply of live pigs is shrinking; On the other hand, the pig enterprises in the group concentrated on stocking before the holiday, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises hovered around 47.7%, which just needed to be strengthened. However, in order to stabilize the holiday market supply, the operation of raising prices and ensuring quantity has increased!

Therefore, due to the cyclical changes in market purchase and sale, the price of pigs has risen sharply. However, with the approach of New Year's Eve, the supply and demand of live pigs gradually cooled down. Judging from the operating rate of slaughter enterprises, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises on the 29th of the twelfth lunar month will be only about 7%, and the slaughter enterprises will enter the holiday of stopping and collecting, and the end of farming will basically come to an end. Personally, I think the market may be 15.4 yuan.

There are different opinions on the trend of pig market after the year. Personally, the pig price is still not optimistic after the year, and there is a risk of a double dip in the market. However, the market is also conducive to good changes! On the one hand, after the year, the inertia of the consumer market declined, and residents' purchasing enthusiasm was low, but the catering industry has not recovered, students have not returned to school, the demand for terminal pork is weak as a whole, the consumer market shows an inertia downward trend, and the pig price lacks obvious benefits.

However, the production capacity that has not been cleared before the end of the breeding season is released in a centralized manner, and the supply pressure of pigs is relatively high. After the holiday, the pig price is mainly below the slope, and the pig price has the risk of bottoming out again!

On the other hand, after the year, the pig price bottomed out in stages, the average price of live pigs further declined, the domestic pig-to-grain ratio further declined, and the loss pressure at the breeding end further appeared. The government may introduce a plan to reserve pork, but slaughterhouses and secondary fattening still have a certain feeling of bargain-hunting, and the bullish sentiment in the market is heating up, and the pig price has bottomed out!

However, due to the overall weak consumption after the year, the demand for pork entered the off-season of the whole year, while the domestic pig production capacity remained high. According to official data, at the end of the year, there were 452.56 million domestic pigs, up 0.7% year-on-year, and the number of sows remained at around 44 million. After the year, the pig production capacity will continue to be released, and the downward pressure on pig prices will not decrease!

However, in March, with the gradual recovery of the domestic economic level, the catering industry has obviously picked up, and the market demand for pork is relatively strong. Pork prices are at a low level during the year, and consumption enthusiasm may become stronger. Therefore, the off-season consumption after the year may be "not weak". Around March, the support of rising pig prices will become stronger, and prices will gradually rise!

Pig prices rose 10.24%. Cold and New Year's Eve are linked. Will the pig price go up or down after the year? There's news! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!