Will the corn sown area in Northeast China increase next year?

Source/Grain and Oil Market News/Fu Xiangmin (Changchun National Grain Trading Center)

In early spring and March, the earth is getting warmer. Although the land of Jilin is still covered in snow, farmers have accelerated the sale of remaining corn and have quietly begun preparations for spring plowing. At the end of February, the author learned through visits to Yushu, Songyuan, Shuangyang and other surveys that most farmers who have not yet sold corn are actively selling their surplus grain to withdraw funds, select planting varieties, purchase agricultural materials, and prepare for the new year's spring plowing production. .

The progress of farmers’ grain sales varies across regions

March is approaching. As the weather gradually gets warmer, the remaining grains in farmers’ hands are prone to the risk of mildew and spoilage. The peak season for grain sales is approaching. In the past, most farmers with surplus grain have stopped waiting and waiting and began to actively sell grain, which has increased the pressure on grain supply. Despite this, there are still certain differences in the progress of farmers' grain sales in various regions.

According to Liu Guoying, a farmer in Liujiajia, Yushu City, the ground grains in the hands of farmers in the area have been basically sold out before the Spring Festival. Currently, about 60% of the corn has not been sold, and they are stored in Baomilouzi for later use. Choose an opportunity to sell when prices rise. In previous years, they were usually sold out before May Day, but this year it may be delayed a bit.

Wang Lijun, a farmer in Qianshuangtun, Sheling Town, Shuangyang District, said that at present, less than 20% of the corn surplus in the hands of local farmers is less than 20%, and only about 20% of them use methods such as yarding and corning to prevent mold. If the grain spoils, they will choose an opportunity to sell the grain in the future. Other households with surplus grain are ready to sell it on schedule; Lao Wang, a rural economist in Wangfuzhan Town, Qianguo County, Songyuan City, said that due to the recent heavy snow weather, it has been difficult for individual traders to enter the village to collect grain. The grain sales of farmers have been affected to some extent; but more importantly, the price of corn has dropped significantly this year, and farmers are reluctant to sell. Local farmers still have 40% of their surplus grain that has not yet been sold.

The cost of corn planting has changed greatly

According to the author's survey and calculation, the cost of corn planting in Jilin Province has changed significantly this year compared with last year. Among them: the cost of land rental has dropped significantly, and the current land rental price has basically not been finalized. There is a price but no market. Due to the low price of corn last year, many farmers who rented land suffered losses from planting corn. As a result, farmers are not very willing to rent land this year, and there are even "naked packages" (meaning that in addition to the land contract fee, all government subsidies also go to the farmers on the contracted land) ). This year, farmers across the country are more inclined to "naked packages" because government subsidies and land rents provide a stable income and are more beneficial to lessees. Seed prices are basically the same as last year, and fertilizer and diesel prices are rising steadily.

The cost of renting land in Liujiajia, Yushu City this year is 2,500-3,000 yuan per lot, which is about 3,000 yuan per lot less than last year; 80 kilograms of fertilizer is 125 yuan per bag, a slight increase from last year, and the price of seeds is the same as last year. , diesel prices increased slightly.

The land rental fee in Wangfuzhan Town, Qianguo County, Songyuan City this year is about 3,500 yuan/lot, which is 3,000 yuan/lot lower than last year; the price of chemical fertilizers has increased by 5%-10%/bag compared with last year, and the price of seeds is the same as last year. Prices were flat, while diesel prices rose slightly. Some low-income farmers have gone to Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shandong and other places to work. If the land transfer price drops sharply in the future, large grain-growing households may contract large areas of land and engage in large-scale operations.

The land rental fee in Qianshuangtun, Sheling Town, Shuangyang District this year is 1,000-1,500 yuan/lot, which is 3,000-3,500 yuan/lot lower than last year; the price of chemical fertilizers has increased slightly by 20 yuan/bag compared with last year, and the seed price is the same as last year. Last year was the same, diesel prices increased slightly, and some farmers had prepared enough seeds before the Spring Festival.

Farmers’ planting intentions have changed

Due to the sharp decline in corn prices, some farmers have taken the initiative to adjust this year’s planting structure. Farmers in Wangfuzhan Town, Qianguo County, are highly motivated to plant varieties other than corn this year, and the varieties they have planted are also relatively complex.

It is understood that some farmers have signed purchase and sales contracts with enterprises in Liaoning Province, Heilongjiang Province and other places. Some farmers have switched to planting black fruits on plots with poor soil fertility, inconvenient farming and poor irrigation conditions. For Rowan (blueberry), a purchase and sale contract has been signed with Liaoning Fukangyuan Black Fruit Rowan Technology Development Co., Ltd., and the seedlings will be transplanted in the near future. Some farmers plan to switch to sugar beets. Last year, the income from sugar beets was higher and more stable than from corn. The farmers calculated that the conservative income from sugar beets is about 10,000 yuan per day, which is better than corn. At present, some have already cooperated with Heilongjiang Province. A large sugar factory in the province signed a purchase and sales contract. Some farmers have switched to peanut cultivation and have signed orders with related companies.

However, although farmers are more positive about the adjustment of planting structure this year, they still have many worries.

Farmer Wang Lijun said that with the sharp drop in corn prices, although we have the idea of ????adjusting the planting structure, we do not master the planting technology of other varieties and do not understand the future changes in the market situation. There is no Order, dare not change to other varieties.

It can be seen that the grain sales and farming preparation conditions vary across Jilin, and there are still many problems that need to be solved in adjusting the planting structure. In the later stage, we will pay attention to climate changes and sowing conditions in the production areas.