20 10 evaluation of the impact of major weather and climate events in Kashgar on cotton apricot trees: Kashgar climate

In 20 10, the average annual temperature in Kashgar was higher, the total annual precipitation was higher, and the effective accumulated temperature was less. Major weather and climate events such as staged low temperature, strong wind, dust, rainstorm and hail frequently occur, which have a great impact on cotton production and apricot production and cause serious economic losses.

1 Impact assessment of main weather and climate on cotton production

After the emergence of 20 10 Kashi cotton, the meteorological conditions were poor and disastrous weather occurred frequently, which had a great impact on the growth and development of cotton. Meteorological disasters in bud stage mainly include periodic chilling injury, dust, hail, local rainstorm and flood. Under the influence of low temperature and the decrease of accumulated temperature ≥20℃, the growth period of cotton in Kashgar was delayed, the growth was weak, and the peaches in front were greatly reduced, which led to the reduction of cotton production.

Stage chilling injury 1. 1

In May-June of 20 10, it was cold and rainy, and the growth and development of cotton was slow, resulting in delayed chilling injury in stages. According to the statistics of meteorological data, two chilling injuries occurred at the seedling stage of 20 10 cotton: the first time was May 5 -9, when the temperature plummeted and the lowest temperature dropped to 9℃; The second time was on June 6th-1 1, and the temperature dropped again. The lowest temperature dropped to 1 1℃, resulting in poor growth, weak seedlings and slow development of cotton. 10 On June 6th, cotton entered the budding stage (7 days later than in previous years) and entered the full flowering stage in early July.

1.2 dusty weather

The sandstorm weather at cotton seedling stage lasts for a long time, in which the sandstorm weather in April is 12 ~ 18 days, and the illumination time is reduced 17-50 hours. Dust weather weakens cotton photosynthesis, seriously affects the growth of cotton seedlings, and the growth is poor.

1.3 Hail weather

From May to July, 2065438+00, Jiashi County, Yuepuhu County, Yengisar County, bachu county, Yecheng County, Shufu County, Maigaiti County and many other places suffered from hail disasters, among which Jiashi County, Yuepuhu County and Yengisar County suffered from hail disasters many times, and cotton suffered serious losses.

1.4 local rainstorm and flood

From May to July, 20 10, Jiashi County, Yuepuhu County, Yengisha County, bachu county County, Yecheng County, Shufu County, Maigaiti County and Zepu County suffered from local rainstorms and floods, among which a catastrophic flood occurred in Tizinapu River on July 29th, resulting in cotton disaster area in Maigaiti County and Zepu County140000.

The accumulated temperature of 1.5≥20℃ is less, and the Fu Qian peach drops sharply.

Low temperature, insufficient heat and delayed growth period. According to statistics. The temperature at flowering and boll stage is low 1 ~ 2℃, and the accumulated temperature of ≥20℃ is 250d lower than that of the same period of last year. ℃, 580d less than that in 2009? The number of effective heat days at 20℃ decreased by 65,438+02 days and 29 days respectively compared with previous years and 2009, resulting in the cotton growth period being 7 days later than previous years and 65,438+05 days later than 2009. The average number of peaches in the whole region is 0.4, which is 1.3 less than in previous years, and the number of peaches in some cotton fields is 0.

In this regard, we visited some large cotton growers, and their opinions were the same. They mainly think that low temperature, rainstorm and meteorological disasters lead to poor growth of cotton, and the output of seed cotton is reduced by 50 ~ 100 kg/667m2 compared with 2009.

20 10 During the critical period of cotton growth and development from April to July, the above-mentioned adverse weather and climate events caused irreparable losses to cotton production in Kashgar, indicating that under the background of climate warming, successive major weather and climate events have brought great influence to cotton industry in Kashgar, which should attract the attention of relevant departments and actively take measures to deal with the impact of adverse weather and climate factors on cotton production.

2 main weather and climate impact assessment of apricot trees

2. 1 rainstorm

On March 22 -24, 20 10, moderate rainfall generally occurred in the north and south except Bachu in the east, including 9.5mm in Kashgar, 9.9mm in Shufu County12.3mm in Shule County, 9.9mm in Yengisar County13.2mm in Yuepuhu County and shache county City. The heavy rain knocked out some flowers.

2.2 gale

On March 28th, 20 10, strong winds of magnitude 7 ~ 8 generally appeared in northern and eastern Xinjiang, and the wind at the tuyere could reach magnitude 9 ~ 10 in some places and magnitude 5 in the south. The windy weather caused some flowers to be blown off.

2.3 low temperature frost

The average temperature of apricot trees during flowering is about 65438 00℃, which is about 3℃ lower than that of the same period last year. On March 19, the average temperature in all parts of the plain was still above 20℃, and on March 23, the average temperature dropped to about 4℃. The cold weather (average temperature 4 ~ 8℃) lasted for three days, and on March 28th, strong cold air invaded, and windy weather generally appeared in the whole region. In the early morning of the 29th, frosty weather occurred in Yengisar, Yuepu Lake, shache county and Mohammad counties, with the lowest temperatures dropping to -0.2℃, -0.2℃,-1.3℃ and-1.5℃ respectively, and the average temperature only recovered to above 10℃ on March 30th. Low temperature and frost directly affect the vitality and quality of apricot pollen, resulting in poor pollen development and decreased pollination ability and pollination rate.

2.4 Dust weather

Strong dusty weather appeared on March 29th and remained in the plain area on April 5th. During the flowering and pollination of apricots, the number of dusty days reached 8 days, and the sunshine hours during pollination decreased by 13 ~ 17 hours compared with the same period of last year. The pollution of strong dust on buds and styles also directly affects the vitality and quality of pollen.

Rainfall, low temperature, strong wind, frost and dust appeared one after another during apricot flowering, which seriously affected the flowering, pollen development and pollination of apricot trees. The fruit-setting rate of apricot trees has greatly decreased, generally ranging from 30% to 50%, with the largest decrease exceeding 60%, resulting in a significant reduction in apricot production in 20 10 Kashgar.

3 countermeasures

20 10 major weather and climate events have caused huge economic losses to cotton and apricot industries in Kashgar. We should actively respond to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, especially in the case of extreme weather and frequent disasters. How to improve the defensive ability is very important.

(1) Strengthen the ability of monitoring and forecasting extreme weather, and improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecasting major meteorological disasters.

(2) Improve the meteorological emergency system and promote the capacity building of meteorological disasters and extreme weather warning information release.

(3) Seriously study the impact of climate warming on the productivity and volatility of major cash crops, and minimize the economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to agricultural production.