Disputes between Russia and Japan over the Four Northern Islands after World War II

After World War II, Japan's "Northern Territory" diplomacy reneged and finally annoyed Russia.

On September 2, 2004, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took a patrol boat from Genji, Hokkaido, and inspected the Russian-controlled "Northern Territory" at sea. Although the scenery on the island can't be seen clearly because of the weather, Koizumi's trip has aroused strong repercussions in Russia and North Korea. The Russian people generally believe that "the Japanese Prime Minister's close inspection of the South Kuril Islands (the four northern islands) is a blatant contempt and provocation against Russian sovereignty." On the same day, the Russian Foreign Ministry also criticized that "this may complicate the negotiation of the Japan-Russia peace treaty." Since the mid-1950s, recovering the "Northern Territory" through diplomatic channels has been the primary issue of Japan's policy toward Russia. Among Japanese Prime Ministers, former Prime Ministers Suzuki and Mori Yoshiro visited the four northern islands by air at 198 1 and 200 1 respectively. This time, Koizumi chose to raise the issue of "northern territory" in the current special international and domestic environment, which not only inherited the previous foreign policy, but also highlighted the political significance different from the past, thus attracting widespread attention from the international community. The so-called northern territory problem is largely the product of the cold war pattern. The northern territory refers to the four islands of Tooth Dance, Sedan, Guohou and Zehuo, which are located at the southern end of the Kuril Islands and close to Shi Gen, Hokkaido, with an area of ***5036 square kilometers. Traditionally, it is an inherent territory of Japan. Before World War II, there were about 20,000 Japanese residents in the four islands. 1On September 3, 945, the four northern islands were occupied by the Soviet Union as part of the entire Kuril Islands. 1947 65438+ 10, the four islands were formally incorporated into the Soviet territory. From the postwar period to the early 1950s, there was no territorial issue between Japan and the Soviet Union. From 65438 to 0954, Ichiro Hatoyama succeeded Ji Tianmao to form a cabinet, and the new cabinet actively sought to improve the relations between Japan and the Soviet Union and restore the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and the Soviet Union. In this situation, due to the cold war confrontation and domestic political struggle, the pro-American factions of the United States and Japan tried their best to obstruct the improvement of Japan-Soviet relations, throw out the so-called territorial issue between Japan and the Soviet Union, and made a big fuss about it, trying to create a tense atmosphere between Japan and the Soviet Union and cause the territorial issue in the north.

(1) making territorial claims; 1955, Japan raised the territorial issue for the first time in the negotiations on the resumption of diplomatic relations between Japan and the Soviet Union, demanding that the Soviet Union return the two islands of Tooth Dance and Sedan. Japanese Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama visited the Soviet Union. In order to alienate Japan-US relations, the Soviet Union took the initiative to make concessions to Japan, saying in the "Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration": "The Soviet Union agreed to hand over the Tooth Dance Islands and Sedan Island to Japan at Japan's request and taking into account Japan's interests." But at the same time, it said, "These islands will be handed over realistically after Japan and the Soviet Union conclude a peace treaty." Although this "declaration" failed to enable Japan to recover the two islands in fact, it greatly stimulated Japanese nationals' demands for "northern territory." 1On May 23rd, 957, the newly elected cabinet of Kishi Nobusuke and the United States jointly sent a letter to the Soviet Union, claiming that the "Thousand Islands" mentioned in the Yalta Agreement and the San Francisco Peace Treaty not only did not include Tooth Dance and Sedan, but also did not include the Queen of China and Zezhan, thus separating the four northern islands from the "Thousand Islands" abandoned by Japan in the San Francisco Peace Treaty.

(2) The negotiations are deadlocked. In the late 1950s, Japan's Kishimoto government once again shifted its diplomatic focus to the United States. 1960 65438+ 10 19, Japan and the United States signed a new Japan-US security treaty in Washington. The Soviet Union was extremely dissatisfied with strengthening this military alliance against it. As one of the countermeasures, the Soviet Union took a tough stance against Japan on the issue of northern territory. 1960 65438+1On October 27th, the Soviet Union issued a memorandum on relations with Japan, claiming that "Tooth Dance and Sedan can only be handed over to Japan after all foreign troops have withdrawn from Japan and the Soviet-Japanese peace treaty is signed." In other words, the Soviet Union must first meet two preconditions for the return of the two islands: the conclusion of the Soviet-Japanese peace treaty and the withdrawal of the United States from Japan. What's more, in 196 1, Khrushchev withdrew his promise to return the two islands of Tooth Dance and Sedan in his reply to Japanese Prime Minister Ikeda Hayato, saying that "the territorial issue has been resolved" and "there is no territorial issue between Japan and the Soviet Union". With the intensification of the Cold War confrontation, Japan was regarded as the frontier for defending the Soviet Union by the United States. In this situation, the hope of the four northern islands being returned to the Soviet Union was gradually dashed, and the position of Japan and the Soviet Union on the issue of northern territory returned to its original starting point.

(3) rekindle the hope of regaining territory. After 1980s, the Soviet Union gradually fell into the dilemma of internal affairs and diplomacy. Gorbachev came to power in 1985, and pursued "new thinking diplomacy" to the outside world, actively seeking to improve Japan-Soviet relations, trying to win Japanese funds and technical assistance and promote the domestic economic reform process. Japan sensitively seized the historical opportunity that the Soviet Union wanted from Japan economically, so it put forward the principle of "politics and economy are inseparable", which showed that the settlement of territorial issues is inseparable from economic cooperation with the Soviet Union, and economic cooperation with the Soviet Union will not be carried out until the territorial issues are resolved. It is obvious that Japan's intention is to use economic cooperation as bait to force the Soviet Union to make concessions on the territorial issue, so as to promote the northern territorial negotiations. In order to arouse the Soviet Union's positive response to territorial negotiations, Japan quickly adjusted its policy toward the Soviet Union. 1989 in may, Japanese foreign minister Yukio edano put forward the principle of "expanding balance", saying that economic cooperation and territorial negotiations can be carried out at the same time. Gorbachev visited Japan in April 199 1. In view of the urgent need for Japanese aid at that time, the Soviet Union had to make some concessions to Japan on the issue of northern territory. After the talks, the leaders of the two sides issued the "Japan-Soviet Joint Statement": the Soviet Union acknowledged the unresolved historical issues between Japan and the Soviet Union and agreed to resolve the dispute over the four northern islands through negotiations. This is a great diplomatic progress for Japan. Its primary significance is that the Soviet Union finally loosened its original position on the issue of northern territory and was willing to negotiate, which laid the foundation for Japan to continue to promote its diplomacy of "northern territory" in the future.

During the Cold War, the Japanese government made territorial claims to the Soviet Union and launched "Northern Territory" diplomacy, which was mainly influenced by the political pattern of the Cold War and American factors. In view of the national strength and influence of the Soviet Union at that time, Japan had few cards to play in the territory and lacked the means to restrict the Soviet Union, so it could only be at a disadvantage in the negotiations with the Soviet Union, and acted on the Soviet Union. Under the restriction of the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union and the Japan-US alliance, the issue of northern territory cannot be properly solved at all, and this issue is destined to be left to the arrival of a new political environment. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's national strength declined greatly, and Japan's economic assistance was badly needed. At the same time, after its westward strategy of "returning to Europe" was repeatedly frustrated, Russia began to attach importance to eastern diplomacy, gradually adjusted its relations with Japan, and actively sought to improve Japan-Russia relations. In this case, the Japanese government believes that there is an opportunity to put the transfer of the four northern islands on the agenda of bilateral relations again.

(1) Actively promote President Yeltsin's visit to Japan and jointly issue the Tokyo Declaration. Since taking charge of the real power of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin has repeatedly stated his position on the issue of northern territory that Japan is concerned about, saying that Russia is willing to "solve it according to the principles of equality, justice and peace in international law" and tried to adopt a flexible attitude to seek Japan-Russia approach. Japan responded positively to Russia's trend and thought that "the time has come to seek a solution to the northern territorial issue in a more satisfactory way for Japan". 199 1 After Russia's independence, the Japanese government actively promoted President Yeltsin's visit to Japan, with the intention of speeding up the settlement of the territorial dispute between Japan and Russia through summit diplomacy. Under the repeated push of Japan, Yeltsin paid an official visit to Japan in May 5438+0993+ 10. During the visit, the two sides jointly issued the Tokyo Declaration and the Economic Declaration, among which the core of the Tokyo Declaration was the issue of northern territory. The declaration said: "The heads of the two countries agreed that it is necessary to overcome the difficulties left over from the relations between the two countries and conduct serious negotiations on the ownership of Tooth Dance, Sedan, Queen China and Choishuo Island." By promoting the highest level of Japan-Russia summit diplomacy, Japan has gained two achievements in territorial diplomacy: first, the Tokyo Declaration put forward a new guiding principle for solving the northern territorial issue, that is, "based on historical and legal facts, based on various documents and laws formulated between the two countries and justice"; Second, the Tokyo Declaration confirmed that "among other international commitments, all treaties between Japan and the Soviet Union will continue to apply between Japan and Russia", thus indirectly confirming that the promise made by the Soviet Union in the 1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration to return the two northern islands continues to be valid. In view of the above progress made by the Declaration on the Northern Territory, Hosokawa Morihiro, then Japanese Prime Minister, spoke highly of it, believing that the Declaration had found a new foundation for solving the Northern Territory problem.

(2) Carry out "multi-level contacts" and strengthen the political dialogue between Japan and Russia. After President Yeltsin's visit to Japan, Japan and Russia still adhered to their original positions on the northern territory and economic cooperation, and no new progress was made in their relations. Starting from 1996, Hashimoto's cabinet began to actively promote the development of Japan-Russia relations, abandoned the principle of "political and economic inseparability" and "expanding balance" that had been implemented for many years, and formulated a policy of "multi-level contact", calling on Japan and Russia to strengthen political dialogue and further develop Japan-Russia relations. The so-called "multi-level contact" policy includes: (1) peace talks centered on the northern territory; (2) political dialogue at the level of leaders and cabinet; (3) Cooperate with Russian economic reform; (4) Inter-regional communication with the Russian Far East; (5) conducting security dialogue; (6) Cooperation on international issues such as the United Nations; (7) hold consultations on the stability of Northeast Asia. Although the new policy still puts the territorial issue at the top of its Russian policy, it does not take it as the only goal it pursues, but strives to solve this problem in the process of seeking parallel progress in the above-mentioned fields. Compared with the principles of "inseparable politics and economy" and "expanding balance", the new policy shows greater flexibility in handling relations with Russia, which is welcomed by Russia and received a positive response from Russia as soon as it was put forward. 1997 Japan and Russia reached an agreement on establishing a telephone hotline between the two countries and a system of regular annual meetings between Japanese and Russian leaders. In July of the same year, Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto delivered a speech on Russian policy, putting forward three new principles of "mutual trust, mutual benefit and long-term perspective" and stressing that "winners and losers should not be distinguished in resolving territorial issues". President Yeltsin spoke highly of this: "These three principles will fundamentally open a new chapter in Japan-Russia relations and make it more vital and rich." The proximity of Japan-Russia relations has promoted territorial negotiations. In that year 10, Hashimoto and Yeltsin held an informal summit meeting in Krasnoyarsk, and Russia agreed to resolve the territorial issue and conclude a peace treaty before 2000. This is the biggest progress in territorial negotiations between the two sides since the publication of the 1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration.

(3) Expand economic cooperation with Russia and induce Russia to make territorial concessions. In the second half of 1990s, under the impact of the Asian financial crisis, Russia's economic situation went from bad to worse. In response to Russia's strong desire for economic assistance from Japan, Japan frequently waved the "economic cooperation" card in an attempt to give Russia a little sweetness economically and induce Russia to make new concessions on the territorial issue. 1997165438+10 In October, Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Yeltsin signed a package of assistance agreements, the main contents of which are: before the year 2000, Japan will provide assistance and cooperation in the high-tech field, rectify Russia's domestic investment environment, train enterprise talents, and develop Russian Far East Siberia energy. In addition, Hashimoto Tōru also promised to provide Russia with a loan of US$ 6,543.8+US$ 50 million from the Export-Import Bank. 1998165438+10 Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi visited Russia in October, and proposed that Japan would continue to implement the Hashimoto-Yeltsin plan and increase its aid to Russia by10.50 billion dollars on the basis of the promised/kloc-0.50 billion dollars. At the same time, the two sides signed a Japan-Russia investment protection agreement and decided to establish a "Japan-Russia investment protection agreement." Under the attack of Japan's "Jin Yuan Diplomacy", 1998, Russia gave in again and exchanged with Japan a preliminary plan to solve the territorial problem and conclude a peace treaty. Japan's plan is to stipulate in the Japan-Russia peace treaty that the boundary line between the two countries will be finally demarcated. Before the agreed date of return, Japan will recognize Russia's administrative power and continue to maintain the status quo of the four islands. Russia's plan is to draft and sign a peace treaty between Japan and Russia before the year 2000, in which it is stated that it will continue to explore mutually acceptable solutions to the border issue, and at the same time continue to negotiate a treaty to delimit the border between the above islands. Although the contents of the two plans are far from each other, both sides have expressed difficulty in accepting each other's proposal, but this progress shows that the negotiations on territorial issues between the two sides have gone beyond the stage of debate on whether to return the four islands and entered the stage of "hand-to-hand combat" on how to return them.

Since then, the Japanese government has successively proposed new territorial solutions in pursuit of victory. In March, 20001,Japanese Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin that solving the problem of the four northern islands can be divided into two steps, namely, returning the two islands of Tooth Dance and Sedan. It is said that this plan has been approved by Putin. However, once Mori Yoshiro's proposal was announced, it immediately attracted criticism and doubts in Japan. They are worried that the two-step policy may eventually only get the two islands with the smallest area, while the sovereignty of the other two islands is difficult to determine.

Compared with the stalemate between Japan and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the development of Japan-Russia relations after the Cold War gradually got rid of the shackles of ideological confrontation and East-West conflict, and the two sides needed each other and kept getting closer, creating a more favorable international political environment for solving the problem of "northern territory". The Japanese government skillfully used economic skills to promote the diplomacy of "Northern Territory" and incorporated new strategic considerations with the development of the times: First, it strengthened its national prestige by recovering "Northern Territory" and accelerated its strategic pace of becoming a "political power"; Second, in the adjustment of relations between major powers after the Cold War, we should build a multilateral diplomatic environment that is beneficial to us, take the opportunity to improve our international status and increase our diplomatic leeway; Third, while strengthening the Japan-US alliance system, improve Japan-Russia relations by strengthening political and security dialogue with Russia, so as to contain the rise of China and balance the power balance in the Asia-Pacific region; Fourth, covet Russia's oil and natural gas resources, hoping to take the lead in resource development in Siberia and the Far East of Russia to ensure the safety of its energy supply. After the Cold War, Japan flexibly adjusted its policy toward Russia, comprehensively developed its relations with Russia in various fields, and the means of negotiations with Russia became increasingly diversified and concealed, which showed that Japan began to take a long-term view on the northern territory issue and attempted to take the island by retreating. The political plot and background of Koizumi's tour of the four northern islands

In the post-war history of Japan, it is no longer news that the current Prime Minister has visited the four northern islands at close range in some way. However, Koizumi's trip chose a special time and a special international and domestic background, which was particularly eye-catching. This is not only the inheritance of the northern territorial diplomacy in the past, but also the strategic consideration of Koizumi and his cabinet, and its political meaning is worth pondering.

First of all, shift the domestic political sight and consolidate the ruling position. At present, Koizumi's ruling position is very weak. Because of his incompetence in the pension reform plan and sending troops to Iraq, his Liberal Democratic Party lost to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan by 49 votes in the 20th Senate election this year. Mikio Evergreen, director of the Senate of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, once said: "If the Liberal Democratic Party fails to win 5/kloc-0 seats, then the responsibility should of course be borne by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi." According to a senior reporter of a famous Japanese media in Beijing, "Koizumi has been in power for three years and made many decisions against the will of the people. After the decisions, he did not explain his position and reasons to the people. In addition, during Koizumi's tenure, there were many bluff policies, and there were too few things that really benefited the people. In the long run, people will lose confidence in him. " In order to maintain his ruling position and rebuild his personal image, Koizumi decided to do something in diplomacy, among which signing a peace treaty with Russia, solving the northern territorial problem and establishing diplomatic relations with North Korea attracted the most attention. Koizumi's visit to the four islands is obviously intended to divert the attention of the domestic people from their domestic policies and gain time for them to get out of their domestic political difficulties.

Second, incite national sentiment and seek opportunities for negotiations with Russia. Next year, Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay another official visit to Japan since 2000, and Japan is also full of expectations for the long-term regime of President Putin, who was re-elected in March this year. I hope that Putin's visit to Japan next year will find a breakthrough for the settlement of the northern territorial issue and the conclusion and negotiation of the Japan-Russia peace treaty. As we all know, September 2nd every year is a day of shame for Japan. 1945 On this day, the representative of the Japanese government officially confirmed in writing that it was defeated and surrendered in World War II. The fundamental reason why the four northern islands have become a problem is precisely because of Japan's defeat in World War II. Koizumi's intention to visit the four islands on such a day is obvious. The purpose is to arouse the humiliation and pain left by Japanese nationals in World War II, take the opportunity to incite nationalist sentiment, create domestic public opinion for the upcoming Japan-Russia summit, and increase the bargaining chip.

Third, have it both ways, profit from it. Before 2002, Japan always insisted that Russia must return to the four northern provinces before Japan-Russia relations could be normalized. However, at the beginning of 2003, Japan suddenly changed its attitude and suggested that Japan and Russia could put aside territorial disputes and develop economic and trade relations first. At that time, the change of Japanese attitude was mainly due to the oil competition with China. When China and Russia were about to reach an agreement on the "Anda Line", Koizumi made a surprise visit to Russia in May 438+10 last year, strongly demanding that Russia build the "Anda Line" (later renamed Tanner Line), saying that it would import 6,543,800 barrels of oil from Russia every day. In March, the Russian Ministry of Energy decided to merge the "An-Da Line" and "An-Na Line" schemes. The trunk line will lead to Nakhodka, and the branch line to Daqing will be started first. After receiving the news, Japan sent the Minister of Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry to visit Moscow, and used large-scale cooperation projects as bait to ask Russia to give priority to the construction of the "Anna Line". Later, he expressed his willingness to invest $7 billion in the Tyne Line project, saying that the money could be used not only for pipeline construction, but also for developing oil fields in eastern Siberia. On June 30, 2004, the Russian government officially decided to abandon the "Anda Line" project. In view of Russian bad faith in the "Anda Line" cooperation project, China turned its oil import target to Kazakhstan. In mid-July, China and Kazakhstan formally signed an oil pipeline transportation agreement, and it is estimated that the annual oil transportation volume will reach 20 million tons. The opening of "China-Kazakhstan Line" made the value of Russian Far East oil plan to China drop sharply, and Japanese have it both ways quickly changed its attitude towards Russia and resumed its tough stance on territorial disputes. On July 18, the Japanese government put forward a new foreign policy toward Russia, which changed the previous practice of "not focusing on the northern territorial issue and developing bilateral relations in an all-round way" and re-emphasized that the territorial issue was the focus of negotiations between the two sides; At the same time, Japan issued a new "defense white paper", strongly demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from the four northern islands. After Koizumi visited the four northern islands, Japanese officials publicly said: This move is intended to remind Russia that Japan's investment in Russia is generous, but at the same time it has not forgotten the four northern islands. Japan's basic principle has not changed, that is, it is impossible for Japan to make large-scale investment in Russia before the territorial issue is resolved. According to Russian officials, although Japan actively participated in the oil competition last year, it did not explicitly indicate that it would sign a contract with Russia to buy oil from Nakhodka. Obviously, Russia has fallen into the trap of Japan, which lures Russia into making new concessions on the territorial issue under the guise of purchasing Russian oil on a large scale. This is its real purpose. Of course, there is Japan's real thirst for Russian oil, but the reality is that oil has become an "economic card" for Japan's exchanges with Russia.

Fourth, speed up the territorial settlement and take the opportunity to contain China and North Korea. The issue of northern territory has always been a cloud hanging over the benign development prospect of Japan-Russia relations, which often leads to friction between the two countries. According to the analysis of international observers, Koizumi's term of office as prime minister is only two years left, and he is eager to surpass his predecessor in resolving territorial disputes, although the difficulty of solving this problem has been proved by successive prime ministers. In the talks between Prime Minister Koizumi and President Putin so far, the two sides only confirmed the necessity of solving the problem. Koizumi knows that now is not the best time to solve the problem of the four northern islands, partly because Koizumi is eager to recover the islands. In addition, the deeper consideration of Koizumi's landing on the island lies in the hope of invigorating Japan-Russia diplomacy to promote Japan-China and Japan-DPRK diplomacy. People around Prime Minister Koizumi pointed out that "Japan and Russia tend to solve territorial issues by themselves, which will form unprecedented constraints on China and North Korea." At present, China's influence in East Asia is growing, and the North Korean issue has become a turbulent factor in East Asia's security. China and North Korea were brought into Japan-Russia diplomatic consideration and became bargaining chips.