New research: Climate warming will lead to no more snow in the Arctic

China Daily, December 17, according to the British "Guardian" report, a research team found that the climate crisis is accelerating the melting of the Earth's Arctic ice caps, and the most common form of precipitation in the Arctic will change from snowfall to into rainfall.

Currently, there is more snowfall than rainfall in the Arctic, but research shows that this situation will be reversed. If global temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius, then by the end of this century, all land in the Arctic and almost all The dominant form of precipitation over the ocean will become rainfall. Even if the commitments made by countries at the recent Cop26 summit can be fulfilled and only limit the temperature increase to 2.4 degrees Celsius, it will still have catastrophic consequences.

Even if global warming is controlled at 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius, precipitation in Greenland and the Norwegian Sea will still be dominated by rainfall. In August, scientists were shocked when the first rainfall was observed atop Greenland's giant ice sheet.

The study used the latest climate models to show that the switch from snow to rain occurs decades earlier than expected, with significant seasonal changes in autumn. For example, the model found that if carbon emissions are not reduced, the central Arctic will become a rainfall-dominated region by 2060 or 2070, rather than 2090 as earlier models predicted.

Researchers say this shift will have far-reaching consequences, including accelerated global warming and rising sea levels, melting permafrost, sinking roads and mass starvation of reindeer in the Arctic. Scientists believe that rapid warming in the Arctic may also increase extreme weather events, such as flooding and heat waves, in Europe, Asia and North America by changing the jet stream.

Michelle McCrystall of the University of Manitoba in Canada, who led the new study, said: "It's not just the Arctic that will change. You may think that the Arctic is far away from your daily life, but in fact Arctic temperatures "We take snowfall throughout the autumn for granted in the central Arctic, but the transition to rain is coming much earlier than expected, and the consequences will be far-reaching. influence. The maintenance of heavy snowfall in the Arctic is important for everything in the region, but also for the global climate, because it reflects a lot of sunlight. ”

Professor James Screen from the University of Exeter, UK, a member of the research team, said: “The new model clearly tells us that if global warming is not stopped, the Arctic will be wetter in the future than the once ice-cold Arctic. Sealed oceans will become open waters, and rain will replace snow. ”

Scientists have previously agreed that precipitation in the Arctic will increase significantly in the future as more water evaporates from increasingly warm and ice-free oceans. However, published in Nature Research in the journal Communications found that if emissions are not reduced, Arctic autumn rainfall will account for a significant proportion by 2100. The scientists concluded: "Summer and autumn are expected to be dominated by snow. The transition to a predominantly rainfall-dominated Arctic region will occur decades earlier, even if global warming is controlled to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which will have far-reaching impacts on climate, ecology and socio-economics. ”

Snowfall is very important for sea ice to form each winter, so less snowfall means less ice and more heat will be absorbed by the sea water. Research shows that rainfall is increasing on the southern coast of Greenland, which may It will further accelerate the sliding of glaciers towards the ocean, and with it, sea levels will rise, threatening many coastal areas.

Most of the land in the Arctic is tundra, where the soil is permanently frozen, and more rainfall will change this. status. "Warm precipitation flows into the ground and could melt permafrost, which would have global impacts because, as we know, permafrost stores huge amounts of carbon and methane," McCrystall said. "

Impacts in the area include the melting of important ice roads, frequent flooding, and starvation of animal populations. When rain falls on the snow, it freezes and prevents animals from eating. She said: " Reindeer and musk oxen could not coexist to obtain the forage they needed to survive, so they suffered massive die-offs.

Professor Richard Allan from the University of Reading, UK, said: "Based on a suite of state-of-the-art, sophisticated computer simulations, this new study paints a worrying picture of future Arctic climate change. This study is a wake-up call for the Arctic and beyond, even faster than earlier studies suggested. ”

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, however. Gavin Schmidt said: "There is weak evidence for claims of more rapid change, as some new climate models are based on projections of temperatures that may be higher than expected.

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